This week, we continue with our discussion on overconfidence and explore how even the most experienced leaders can fall prey to the illusion of control. From the Chernobyl disaster to modern-day boardrooms, we’ll talk about the subtle ways overconfidence can distort leadership judgment.
Drawing on real-world examples such as the Deepwater Horizon incident and startup failures, we examine how success often breeds a false sense of certainty. We explore the planning fallacy, the inside view, and how ignoring base rates can lead to missed deadlines, bloated budgets, and strategic misfires.
If you’re leading a team, managing growth, or navigating uncertainty, this episode will challenge you to pause and reflect: where might your confidence be outpacing reality? And who around you is bold enough to challenge your assumptions? Let’s talk!
In this episode:
Introduction to overconfidence in leadership
The illusion of control: the Chernobyl disaster example
Other real-world examples of overconfidence
The planning fallacy and overestimation
Final thoughts on the illusion of control
Resources Used in the Episode:
Moore, D. A., & Healy, P. J. (2008). The Trouble with Overconfidence. Psychological Review, 115(2), 502–517
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Intuitive prediction: Biases and corrective procedures. Management Science, 12(1), 313–327
Langer, E. J. (1975). The illusion of control. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 32(2), 311–328
Turner, B. A. (1978). Man-Made Disasters. Wykeham Publications
